Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
